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AP (UK) Breakfast Discussion with John Howard, former PM of Australia

The US relationship with China – a perspective by John Howard former PM of Australia

The former Prime Minster of Australia, John Howard, spoke at an Atlantic Partnership event on Tuesday 16th July on the subject of the US relationship with China.

Mr. Howard began by mentioning the results of a recent poll by the Lowy Institute, a think tank in Australia. The results of the poll showed that an overwhelming majority of Australians thought that China was the most important country economically to Australia. However, when Australians were asked to indicate on a barometer scale their attitude to other countries, the three most favourably perceived were Britain, Ireland and the US. This is a reminder that the relations between nations are built on a variety of factors, not just economic factors.

US and China

Clearly the relationship between China and the United States is the preeminent relationship in Asia. Australia has a great interest in this relationship. China is overwhelmingly Australia’s biggest export destination. Australia’s exports to China have increased 5 fold in the last 15 years.

However, Mr Howard warned us not to be too mesmerised by China. China is very powerful and very conscious of her growing power in the world. As we have witnessed from history, as a country grows in economic strength they take it upon themselves to upgrade their defence hardware capability befitting an emerging power. China is clearly doing this. However, we should not assume that China wants to engage in a conflict at the present time. China is too preoccupied with managing internal issues to be concerned with external threats. Whilst there is some concern about tension between China and Japan, this is a long-standing dispute, with a well know history.  Japanese economic presence in China is significant and will ensure tensions between these two countries remain in check.

Demographic challenge

When the history of the last 30 years is written the main economic story will not be the global financial crisis, according to Mr Howard, but the liberation of poverty of hundreds of millions of people through competitive capitalism and globalization. When that history is written people will give, rightly, credit to China’s achievements. Despite all of the impressive economic growth, China faces two main challenges. First, of course, is demography because of the one child policy. China is an ageing country and you will not be able to turn that around within a generation.  This contrasts strongly with India where the age cohort of 15 to 25 year old in India is the largest anywhere in the world. This cohort exceeds the total population of Indonesia, which is a reminder of how young India is compared to the ageing population of China. China will have to put increasing resources into looking after people moving into old age in the future.

Enrichment vs Authoritarianism

The other challenge facing China is how does it balance the economic enrichment with its continued political authoritarianism. If you have been newly liberated from poverty in your lifetime, you will probably put up with being told what to do politically. However, will the next generation of Chinese who will take the economic liberation for granted.  Will they adopt such an accepting attitude towards political authoritarianism?

So in amidst all of this natural bedazzlement of China’s rise and how very important it is to all of our countries, not least Australia because of the huge export dependency it has on China, we have to avoid being too mesmerized.

US in the Pacific Region

President Obama’s recently used the expression ‘pivot’ to describe the presumed change in attitude of the United States towards the Pacific region. Mr. Howard was surprised that the United States considers it is pivoting towards Asia. He was under the impression that the United States had had a very large presence in Asia since at least 1945. The United States have fought to major land wars in Asia in the period since World War 2.   The Americans have been involved in the Pacific for a very long time. 2,500 Marines rotating through Darwin is hardly an act of belligerence. And they will remain involved for the reason that just about every country in the region (Singapore, South Korea and Japan) want them to remain involved.

We also have to avoid being persuaded by so-called experts or commentators that there is inevitability in some kind of clash between the United States and China. One of Australia’s obligation in the region, besides protecting its own national interest in the region, is to do what it can to lower the temperature where it looks to be rising between China and the United States. A considerable amount has been achieved between those two countries, despite what has been said, to lower the temperature. The issue of Taiwan is now very different to how it was when Mr. Howard became PM is 1996.  The Clinton Administration and the Chinese Government’s relationship over the Taiwanese straits was very difficult. However, over time this temperature has lowered. The Bush administration deserves some credit for this reduction in tension. In 20 years time, Mr Howard envisions a Hong Kong style arrangement for Taiwan.

There is room for both the United States and China in this part of the world. This idea that we face some kind of choice that is regularly trotted out in commentary in Australia is a fallacious proposition. Mr Howard considers himself an optimist – albeit a guarded optimist – about relations between China and the US. It’s in the national interest of both countries to retain stable relations. China is an enormous buyer of American treasury bonds and the market between the US and China is huge.

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AP (UK) Breakfast Discussion with Rt Hon. George Osborne, The Chancellor of the Exchequer

The Economic Relationship between the US and the UK

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rt Hon. George Osborne, spoke at an Atlantic Partnership event on Wednesday 10th July on the subject of the economic relationship between the US and the UK – a relationship in which the US is the largest foreign investor in the UK, and the UK the largest investor in the US.

Here are some of the issues he addressed:

Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership

The Chancellor discussed the importance of the Transatlantic Trade Investment Partnership (TTIP) Despite reservations within the EU and amongst protectionist in Congress, there is political will for the implementation of TTIP as evidenced by the recent talks between President Obama and Prime Minister Cam

eron on the subject at the G8 in Northern Ireland. However, Mr. Osborne warned that the implementation of TTIP was not inevitable. There was still much to be acheived surrounding the inclusion of Financial Services in TTIP and the regulation of compensation.

US & UK Fiscal and Monetary Policies

Mr. Osborne discussed the economic similarities between the US and the UK. Both countries enjoy comparable levels of public debt, unemployment and size of deficit. Fiscal consolidation in the US over this period has been 1.8% of GDP in comparison to 1.1% of GDP in the UK.

The Chancellor stated that both the UK & US have adopted a tight fiscal policy whilst adopting loose and creative monetary polices.

He said that the US had dealt more decisively with the banking problem than the UK back in 2008/9. Immediately following the crash, the US aggressively recapitalized their banks.

Labour Market

In the UK, the workforce participation rate has increased. There has been an acceptance and willingness by the British workforce to accept pay freezes in return for continuous employment. This had resulted in less unemployment rates than in previous recessions.

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AP (UK) Mr. Nick Robinson, BBC Political Editor

Thursday, 7 May 2013

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AP (US) Luncheon Discussion with Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting

Wednesday, 29 February 2012
12:30pm-2:00pm
Luncheon Discussion

Ambassador Thomas Mayr-Harting, EU Head of Delegation to the United Nations, was AP’s special guest at a well-attended luncheon discussion on “The EU and Current Challenges in the Middle East.”

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Europe must continue to do justice to Ronald Reagan’s legacy: it would be wrong to view the changing relationships between Europe, the US and the world’s emerging economies in ‘zero-sum’ terms

By János Martonyi
Tuesday, 06 July 2011
THE TELEGRAPH

HUNGARY — Yesterday, Britain paid tribute to a great leader of the free world, President Ronald Reagan. My country has also unveiled a statue of President Reagan to mark his centennial. The moment had special poignancy for Hungarians. President Reagan was a decisive factor in helping us to win back our freedom 20 years ago, as of course was Baroness Thatcher. It is an appropriate moment to remember the debt of gratitude we owe to them both. But it also serves as a timely reminder for all Europeans of the importance of strong transatlantic ties.

Read More

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Running Against Europe?

by Sean Mulvaney
Wednesday, 27 October 2010
THE GERMAN MARSHALL FUND

WASHINGTON — Next Tuesday’s U.S. midterm election is shaping into a debate about the role of government.  Age-old differences on the role of the market and the size of government are being used to score political points.  Candidates, most of them Republican, are making frequent references to “Europe” as  verbal shorthand for the heavy hand of the state. Some seem to be running against Europe rather than against their opponents.  But some Democrats are caught in the debate, too. They are at odds with their own president.

There is nothing trivial, nothing superficial about the topics of this election campaign. Serious philosophical differences about the degree of spending and taxation underlie campaign talking points and battles over the airwaves.  U.S. government spending as a share of GDP is now up to as much as 25 percent. Although the dollar costs of the military deployments in Afghanistan and Iraq are included in that figure, it is the government spending on the stimulus program, the bank bail-out, and healthcare reform that are drawing much of the ire.  Candidates of both parties are seeking to capitalize on voter sentiment.  NBC White House Correspondent Chuck Todd says that the role of government represents the bright line of distinction and debate between parties.

Read more: http://bit.ly/RunningAgainstEurope

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U.S. must move faster on climate change: Sweden

Reuters
July 23, 2009

Sweden, which currently holds the European Union presidency, urged the United States on Thursday to move faster to tackle climate change ahead of a major environmental summit in Copenhagen later this year. more

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Senator John McCain Becomes Atlantic Partnership Patron

mccain.gifWashington, DC
June 22, 2009

Atlantic Partnership (AP) is proud to announce that Senator John McCain, U.S. Senator, Arizona and 2008 Republican Presidential nominee, has agreed become an esteemed AP Patron.

Link to Press Release

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AP Breakfast with Dr. Anthony Hayward

abh.jpgTuesday, 9 June 2009
8:00 am- 9:00 am
Breakfast Discussion

Dr. Anthony Hayward, the Group Chief Executive of British Petroleum, was a special guest at a high-level breakfast discussion about European- American relations. The event was hosted by Atlantic Partnership Chairman Lord Powell of Bayswater in London.

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WHO says swine flu pandemic is imminent

Associated Press
April 30, 2009

Global health authorities warned Wednesday that swine flu was threatening to bloom into a pandemic, and the virus spread farther in Europe even as the outbreak appeared to stabilize at its epicenter. A toddler who succumbed in Texas became the first death outside Mexico. more

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